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शेयर बजार: माग कम आपूर्ति धेरै, बढ्यो प्यानिक शेलिङ 

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निश्चलराज दवाडी
प्रकाशित २०७९ फागुन १९ शुक्रबार
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काठमाडौं। विगत केही समय यता ओरालो लागेको नेप्से परिसूचकले  यस साता पनि आफ्नो  खराब प्रदर्शनी यथावत् राखेको छ । ओरालो लाग्नुको प्रमुख कारण प्यानिक शेलिङ रहेको छ। बजारको स्थितिमा केही समय आश जागे पनि विस्तारै बजार घट्न थालेपछि लगानीकर्ताहरू प्यानिक (आत्तिएको) भएर आफ्ना शेयरहरू बेच्न थालेका छन् ।  

प्यानिक शेलिङले गर्दा बजारमा माग कम र आपूर्ति धेरै भइरहेको छ। आउँदो साता पनि यहि स्थिति रहने अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ । नेप्सेले १९ सय तर्फको यात्रा गर्ने आङ्कलन गरिएको छ। राष्ट्रपति चुनावपछि उत्पन्न हुने राजनीतिक परिस्थितले मात्र बजारलाई केहि राहत दिने अनुमान गर्न सकिन्छ । 

राष्ट्रपति निर्वाचनपछि सत्ता समिकरण परिवर्तन हुने भएकोले पनि बजार पर्ख र हेरको स्थितिमा बस्ने अनुमान गरिएको छ। नयाँ लगानिकर्ताहरू बजार प्रवेश नगर्ने हुनाले केहि समय बजारमा तनाव रहने छ। 

२०२७.१९ अङ्क मा अघिल्लो साताको कारोबार अन्त्य गरेको नेप्सेमा यस साता आठ अर्ब बत्तीस करोड हाराहारी रकम कारोबार हुँदै नेप्से १९६९.०३ अङ्कमा सीमित रहन पुग्यो । यस साता नेप्सेमा विगतको साता भन्दा १०१.३९ अङ्कको गिरावट आएको छ । 

यसै गरि यस साता सेंसिटिभि इन्डेक्स ३२.४९ अङ्कको गिरावटका साथ ३७३.५७ अङ्कमा सीमित रहन पुगेको छ भने,  फ्लोट इन्डेक्स ६.९६ अङ्कको गिरावटका साथ १३८.३२ अङ्कमा  तथा  सेंसिटिभि फ्लोट इन्डेक्स ७.८४ अङ्कको गिरावटका साथ १२४.९९ अङ्कमा सीमित भएको देख्न सकिन्छ । 

नेप्सेमा सूचीकृत प्राय सम्पूर्ण स्क्रिपहरुले नकारात्मक प्रदर्शन गरेसँगै नेप्से कुन दिशा तर्फ धकेलिने हो भन्ने आशङ्का सम्पूर्ण लगानीकर्ता माझ प्रश्न वाचक चिन्ह खडा गर्दै आएको  छ । १७ लाख रित्तो डिम्याट खाता सम्बन्धित समाचार सम्प्रेषण पश्चात् थप चिन्तामा परेका साधारण लगानीकर्ताहरु,  पुँजी बजारले आफ्नो लगानीको उचित प्रतिफल कहिले दिने भन्दा पनि कति गुणा घाटा खेप्न सक्नेमा सीमित हुँदै आएको छ । 

यस्तो जोखिम भार सहन नसक्ने अनेकन लगानीकर्ताहरू स्टप लस सिद्धान्त अपनाउँदै आफ्ना स्क्रिप बेचेर थप लगानी गर्ने वातावरणको सिर्जना कहिले हुन्छ भन्दै पर्ख र हेरको रणनीतिमा उत्रिएको देख्न सकिन्छ।

कुनै सकारात्मक समाचारको अभावमा, पुँजीबजारमा आउने साता पनि कम माग तर ज्यादा आपूर्ति रहने आङ्कलन गर्न सकिन्छ । यही अवस्थामा ज्यादा आपूर्तिका कारण आगामी साता प्यानिक सेलिङ्ग बढ्दै नेप्से १९०० हाराहारी झर्ने आङ्कलन पनि गर्न सकिन्छ । 

राष्ट्रपति निर्वाचनमा को राष्ट्रपति बन्ने भन्ने प्रश्नमा पनि पुँजीबजारको आगामी दिन अडिएको छ । राजनीतिक अस्थिरता झेल्दै आएका नेपालीले, थप अस्थिर राजनीतिक परिवेशको आङ्कलनका कारण पनि, पुँजी बजारमा यस्तो गिरावट आएको आङ्कलन गर्न सकिन्छ ।

यस साताको विस्तृत कारोबार

Nepse

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

1,969.03

-26.47

-1.33

1,324,641,326.70

3,193,479

28,149

2023-03-01

1,995.49

-24.44

-1.21

1,260,846,907.30

2,949,327

26,101

2023-02-28

2,019.93

-3.61

-0.18

1,351,968,515.30

3,535,461

28,288

2023-02-27

2,023.54

-3.65

-0.18

1,886,888,855.70

4,782,746

36,928

2023-02-26

2,027.19

4.55

0.22

2,502,391,805.20

5,890,881

49,991

Weekly Total

-53.62

-2.68

8,326,737,410.20

20,351,894.00

169,457.00

Earlier Week Total

-47.77

-2.28

6,213,192,186.40

14,402,787.00

124,961.00

Net Change

-101.39

-4.96

2,113,545,223.80

5,949,107.00

44,496.00

Sensitivity

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

373.57

-4.81

-1.27

467,366,264.70

1,146,525

9,283

2023-03-01

378.38

-3.56

-0.93

380,677,038.20

980,476

7,632

2023-02-28

381.94

-1.07

-0.28

457,667,091.80

1,277,285

7,805

2023-02-27

383.01

-0.84

-0.22

705,324,203.60

1,911,119

12,380

2023-02-26

383.85

-0.51

-0.13

917,692,054.50

2,343,777

16,616

Weekly Total

-10.79

-2.70

2,928,726,652.80

7,659,182.00

53,716.00

Earlier Week Total

-21.70

-3.03

2,426,587,879.10

5,834,754.00

40,943.00

Net Change

-32.49

-5.73

502,138,773.70

1,824,428.00

12,773.00

Float

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

138.32

-1.83

-1.31

1,324,641,326.70

3,193,479

28,149

2023-03-01

140.15

-1.68

-1.19

1,260,846,907.30

2,949,327

26,101

2023-02-28

141.84

-0.22

-0.15

1,351,968,515.30

3,535,461

28,288

2023-02-27

142.05

-0.26

-0.18

1,886,888,855.70

4,782,746

36,928

2023-02-26

142.32

0.24

0.17

2,502,391,805.20

5,890,881

49,991

Weekly Total

-3.75

-2.66

8,326,737,410.20

20,351,894.00

169,457.00

Earlier Week Total

-3.21

-3.81

6,213,192,186.40

14402787

124961

Net Change

-6.96

-6.47

2,113,545,223.80

5,949,107.00

44,496.00

Sensitivity Float

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

124.99

-1.62

-1.28

461,945,387.50

1,128,637

9,075

2023-03-01

126.61

-1.26

-0.98

371,948,092.80

952,525

7,375

2023-02-28

127.87

-0.37

-0.29

447,870,166.90

1,246,038

7,468

2023-02-27

128.24

-0.25

-0.19

700,277,561.20

1,894,486

12,114

2023-02-26

128.48

-0.32

-0.25

907,662,410.80

2,310,173

16,274

Weekly Total

-3.82

-2.99

2,889,703,619.20

7,531,859.00

52,306.00

Earlier Week Total

-4.02

-3.01

2,400,314,650.60

5,746,989.00

39,918.00

Net Change

-7.84

-6.00

489,388,968.60

1,784,870.00

12,388.00

Banking Sun-Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

1,297.16

-12.36

-0.94

210,470,893.10

650,843

4,654

2023-03-01

1,309.52

-7.63

-0.58

186,557,115.80

608,582

3,987

2023-02-28

1,317.15

-4.53

-0.34

160,210,412.10

510,732

3,633

2023-02-27

1,321.68

-1.26

-0.09

250,461,914.00

839,092

5,092

2023-02-26

1,322.94

-11.57

-0.87

314,820,335.10

975,215

6,403

Weekly Total

-37.35

-2.82

1,122,520,670.10

3,584,464.00

23,769.00

Earlier Week Total

-17.50

-1.28

1,055,013,849.80

3,587,356.00

18,013.00

Net Change

-54.85

-4.10

67,506,820.30

-2,892.00

5,756.00

Development Bank Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

3,637.13

-53.09

-1.44

96,642,228.50

290,009.00

1,699.00

2023-03-01

3,690.22

80.54

2.23

75,480,108.60

227,223.00

1,420.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

3,609.69

-38.86

-1.07

67,667,595.10

210,051.00

1,622.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-11.41

-0.28

239,789,932.20

727,283.00

4,741.00

Earlier Week Total

-244.54

-6.41

465,282,466.30

1,389,173.00

7,957.00

Net Change

-255.95

-6.69

-225,492,534.10

-661,890.00

-3,216.00

Finance Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

1,699.70

-42.78

-2.46

101,421,934.10

264,065.00

1,798.00

2023-03-01

1,742.48

48.90

2.89

74,813,537.30

199,036.00

1,472.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

1,693.58

-14.86

-0.87

79,645,780.60

215,173.00

1,552.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-8.74

-0.44

255,881,252.00

678,274.00

4,822.00

Earlier Week Total

-111.98

-6.15

424,567,872.60

1,106,022.00

7,553.00

Net Change

-120.72

-6.59

-168,686,620.60

-427,748.00

-2,731.00

Microfinance Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

3,907.02

-412.02

-9.54

733,116,964.10

742,457.00

14,684.00

2023-03-01

4,319.04

-60.25

-1.38

261,731,808.70

201,460.00

5,479.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

4,379.29

-105.06

-2.34

243,188,229.50

183,057.00

5,321.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-577.33

-13.26

1,238,037,002.30

1,126,974.00

25,484.00

Earlier Week Total

-180.12

-3.87

800,302,666.10

609,068.00

15,569.00

Net Change

-757.45

-17.13

437,734,336.20

517,906.00

9,915.00

Life Insurance Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

10,204.44

-218.70

-2.10

126,363,276.20

220,276.00

2,216.00

2023-03-01

10,423.14

96.36

1.92

99,894,852.30

166,674.00

2,269.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

10,226.78

-86.66

-0.84

98,715,236.30

179,952.00

2,517.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-209.00

-1.02

324,973,364.80

566,902.00

7,002.00

Earlier Week Total

-558.90

-5.14

509,990,740.50

872,515.00

10,204.00

Net Change

-767.90

-6.16

-185,017,375.70

-305,613.00

-3,202.00

Non-Life Insurance

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

8,878.33

-198.92

-2.19

97,516,517.30

182,105.00

1,416.00

2023-03-01

9,077.25

-180.85

2.03

49,743,408.30

92,617.00

1,128.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

8,896.40

-63.25

-0.71

71,025,905.60

129,386.00

1,408.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-443.02

-0.87

218,285,831.20

404,108.00

3,952.00

Earlier Week Total

-360.26

-3.85

487,953,321.00

892,017.00

7,209.00

Net Change

-803.28

-4.72

-269,667,489.80

-487,909.00

-3,257.00

Investment Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

64.84

-1.12

-1.70

69,427,295.70

211,468.00

1,751.00

2023-03-01

65.96

1.63

2.53

75,526,348.70

250,951.00

1,953.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

64.33

-0.52

-0.81

68,304,253.30

221,251.00

2,016.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-0.01

0.02

213,257,897.70

683,670.00

5,720.00

Earlier Week Total

-308.00

-5.55

339,080,471.90

1,134,769.00

8,760.00

Net Change

-308.01

-5.53

-125,822,574.20

-451,099.00

-3,040.00

Manufacturing and Processing Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

4,947.37

-102.31

-2.03

97,165,883.30

71,874.00

1,342.00

2023-03-01

5,049.67

71.90

1.44

163,182,349.40

103,133.00

1,896.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

4,977.78

-164.72

-3.20

245,751,157.20

152,365.00

3,196.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-195.13

-3.79

506,099,389.90

327,372.00

6,434.00

Earlier Week Total

-156.03

-2.85

482,928,796.50

355,196.00

6,321.00

Net Change

-351.16

-6.64

23,170,593.40

-27,824.00

113.00

Hydropower Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

2,556.46

-58.07

-2.22

652,562,760.10

2,100,001.00

14,385.00

2023-03-01

2,614.53

96.92

3.85

645,437,029.90

2,087,121.00

17,570.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

2,517.61

-24.06

-0.95

548,515,123.90

1,779,883.00

13,818.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

14.79

0.68

1,846,514,913.90

5,967,005.00

45,773.00

Earlier Week Total

-159.41

-5.90

3,171,090,590.40

9,972,161.00

67,452.00

Net Change

-144.62

-5.22

-1,324,575,676.50

-4,005,156.00

-21,679.00

Hotel and Tourism Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

3,091.80

-98.32

-3.08

26,835,346.50

73,819.00

302.00

2023-03-01

3,190.12

94.99

3.07

15,186,350.50

36,217.00

210.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

3,095.13

-27.97

-0.90

13,539,817.20

35,636.00

227.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-31.30

-0.91

55,561,514.20

145,672.00

739.00

Earlier Week Total

-158.63

-4.84

100,943,021.10

239,774.00

1,182.00

Net Change

-189.93

-5.75

-45,381,506.90

-94,102.00

-443.00

Other Index

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

1,463.55

-30.41

-2.04

45,266,041.70

56,222.00

786.00

2023-03-01

1,493.95

28.31

1.93

44,172,576.30

54,269.00

599.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

1,465.64

-22.15

-1.49

37,847,396.80

46,821.00

699.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-24.25

-1.60

127,286,014.80

157,312.00

2,084.00

Earlier Week Total

-62.12

-4.06

197,384,165.40

238,685.00

3,257.00

Net Change

-86.37

-5.66

-70,098,150.60

-81,373.00

-1,173.00

Mutual Fund

Date

Close

Absolute Change

Percentage Change

Turnover Values

Turnover Volume

Total Transaction

2023-03-02

14.12

-0.26

-1.83

3,849,498.07

429,406.00

201.00

2023-03-01

14.38

-0.02

-0.15

2,736,154.08

323,225.00

216.00

2023-02-28

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

2023-02-27

14.41

0.11

0.79

16,008,622.24

1,677,065.00

258.00

2023-02-26

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Weekly Total

-0.17

-1.19

22,594,274.39

2,429,696.00

675.00

Earlier Week Total

-0.30

-2.07

13,934,960.19

1,514,132.00

819.00

Net Change

-0.47

-3.26

8,659,314.20

915,564.00

-144.00

 

   



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